March 11, 2010

  • ...I'm sure I've had similar blog entrees on the subject, but I don't think it hurts to repeat it...

    One of the main problems with the video game industry is that it spawns fanboys (and girls) who become loyalists to one of the particular companies. With this current generation of consoles, people are either for Nintendo (Wii), Microsoft (XBOX360), or Sony (PS3). This is what is called the "console wars." It's stupid, but in a social studies point of view, it's also rather fascinating.

    A couple of things that are important to console loyalists, are how well their system of choice sells to the public, and what the video game analysts are predicting on how well the console/game will sell. Exclusive games, ratings, features, and horsepower are also important for console loyalists to boast about, but in the end it usually comes down to numbers and what "the experts" think that fuel the console war arguments. "Preference" for some reason is usually ignored as a valid opinion.

    The most recent major development of note has been these...
    - Nintendo releases the Wii MotionPlus
    - Sony releases the PS3 Slim and finally has a consumer friendly price of $299 US
    - Sony just recently showcased their motion controller called "Move" for the PS3
    - In a few months, Microsoft will announce what they plan to do with "Project Natal"

    All these leads to extend the current game consoles several more years, until a new set of systems need to be released. In a way, these are all "re-launches" of the consoles, so sale numbers are being looked at carefully, and analysts are making their predictions again.

    In a recent bold statement by The Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service, they predicted that the PS3 is going to eventually take the lead over the Wii, and the XBOX360 by the end of this generation. This is despite the fact that the Wii is at an astronomical lead in units sold, while the XBOX360 is still leading the PS3 by about 5-6 Million units worldwide. Ofcourse this got all the fanboys all riled up. The current 3rd place console is going to be 1st by the end? This is even when the most recent NPD Group sales numbers for February shows the 360 actually selling the most console hardware for the month among the three? So when are people going to stop trusting the predictions of game analysts? When are people going to stop caring about sales numbers?

    Let me remind you that years ago when the XBOX360 was just about to be released, with the PS3 and Wii still awhile away, game analysts predicted that the PS3 was going to dominate this generation (on the strength of Blu-Ray and the Sony brand name), with the Wii coming up on 3rd place. The fact that the opposite is currently the truth, means that a lot of analysts simply lost face from their predictions, and their credibility should be questionable. Now that there's a bit of momentum on Sony's part (with the PS3Slim and Move), they probably believe that what they said before will come true anyway. So it's back to saying "Sony will dominate" once again, when it currently looks like the Wii already won. Really now?

    One of the most famous game analysts often quoted by gamers is Michael Pachter (of Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.) He predicted back in 2005 that the current game console marketplace would be divided like this : PS3 = 55%, XBOX360 = 35%, and the Wii = 10%. So how do you think that prediction is going so far?

    So keep these in mind....
    Video game analysts are like meteorologists, as they are just guessing.
    Sales numbers don't mean jack, if you are happy playing your games.

    Some links related to the topic...

Comments (2)

  • are they taking into account the numbers of 2nd/3rd xboxes that people felt compelled to buy out of those total figures? i mean the red ring of death...or cd drives that one day refused to read discs...i know some people who bought a replacement one despite it happening...

  • @kalamai - 2nd/3rd consoles count as a sale, whether it be an extra unit or due to defects. That hasn't changed since the PlayStation or the PS2, which had similar problems as well (although not to the extent of the RRoD). At least the Red Ring Of Death for XBOX360 is covered by a three year
    warranty, so those units don't count as a sale. RRoD is a notorious situation, but the Wii and the PS3 also have their own hardware failures even if they don't happen as often as the 360.

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